Just after a severe weather event this weekend with Vortex2 in our home state here in Missouri on Sunday, it seems we get to look forwards to one tomorrow… again!!!
You all know the front that cooled us down today right? Well, it’s coming back to the north, and will set up in the Missouri/Kansas area as a pesky stationary front. Where “exactly” this sets up is still a question though, so I will likely update the forecasts early in the morning, when I know exactly where it shall lay.
With the given information so far, it looks as if the greatest risk will lie in far eastern Kansas; the greatest profiles of instability and shear seem to be over there. Despite some disagreements in models still this afternoon, I would still bet on at least some supercells with large hail.
A lot of factors will lead to the strength of tomorrow’s storms, but if they do form, they could easily come to the Missouri side with some strong winds aloft. They would likely not be as strong here, but they could still produce hail, and if things set up right, maybe a bow echo.
The reason storms do not look to be as dangerous or likely here on the Missouri side is simply because of the lack of heat, moisture, and instability. If anywhere in Missouri was to have the worst weather, it would most likely be towards the Ozarks.
Pay attention to the latest updates, as things are LIKELY to change.
Monday, June 8, 2009
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