Saturday, June 13, 2009

Heavy Rains and Monday Severe

A very complex weather situation is on our heels, with everything from heavy rain to storms to follow!

For your Sunday, we will have a warm front that will try to move up to the area, but will likely not get that close; it would be surprising if got much past the Kansas/ Oklahoma state line. That will bring a chance of severe weather somewhere in far southern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Other than the storms along the front, there will also certainly be a complex of thunderstorms that happens to form in eastern Kansas tomorrow, which would easily fly over this way. This complex does not look to be a severe one, just more of a wet one which will likely head very close to the Kansas City area.

As if receiving the rain from that complex is not enough, there will be MORE rain for your Monday, and that looks to be the primary day for severe weather across Missouri. The warm front will likely set itself up in southern Missouri.

When this front sets up in southern Missouri, there could possibly be another round of storms in which form in the morning. These morning storms could be slightly severe, but would ail in comparison to if the storms held off until the afternoon, and great convective heating took place in southern Missouri. Here is my current risk map:

This set up looks to have the greatest likelihood of severe weather south of I70, yet due to some uncertainty on EXACTLY where the front will set up, there is a slight risk anywhere south of Highway 36.

The models seem to want to have the heaviest rains just north of I70, but I believe that along with many setups this season, that the front will not go as far north as expected. That is why I am predicting the heaviest rain to most likely be in the Kansas City area.

Have a great rest of the weekend! =)

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