As many have probably known for a while, most of the state of Missouri is under a Slight Risk of severe weather. We are also under a slight risk tomorrow, and once again, the main threat appears to be another MCS, along with a big potential of flooding rains.
A deepening disturbance in SW Kansas with an attached warm front going across central Kansas and a dryline looks to be the biggest risk producer in the nation. As we go later into the evening as this system deepens even more, it appears the CAP will break. Once this happens with the great instability, large thunderstorms will fire across central Kansas.
Along with the main disturbance in SW Kansas, we may have little waves of energy that could shoot along this front. These waves have the potential to easily set off thunderstorms, but the CAP, or warmer air aloft preventing thunderstorms from taking hold, will likely limit the chances of development greatly. Development cannot be ruled out, yet is VERY unlikely with our CAP. The most likely area for this minimal chance of development would be in SW and South Central Missouri though.
As we potentially have the quick development, and likely quick downfall of the potentially severe thunderstorms across the southern half of Missouri, we will also be in the eyes of a likely Mesoscale Convective System. This will be an interesting situation as it would form after massive storms come together in central Kansas.
As this storm heads for Eastern Kansas, and then Missouri, it will still encounter quite the right conditions for severe weather, which includes relatively warm temperatures, and dewpoints in which could be to about 75 degrees. These, and many more factors show a potential for a strong MCS with a bow echo.
With the MCS/derecho of mid-May still fresh on some minds, a though by many probably is, "Could tonight be like that night?"
The answer is, "Likely not. We could still have reports of 75+ mph winds if this materializes as expected, but the chances of it being like that are extremely low.
Monday, June 15, 2009
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