As many have probably known for a while, most of the state of Missouri is under a Slight Risk of severe weather. We are also under a slight risk tomorrow, and once again, the main threat appears to be another MCS, along with a big potential of flooding rains.
A deepening disturbance in SW Kansas with an attached warm front going across central Kansas and a dryline looks to be the biggest risk producer in the nation. As we go later into the evening as this system deepens even more, it appears the CAP will break. Once this happens with the great instability, large thunderstorms will fire across central Kansas.
Along with the main disturbance in SW Kansas, we may have little waves of energy that could shoot along this front. These waves have the potential to easily set off thunderstorms, but the CAP, or warmer air aloft preventing thunderstorms from taking hold, will likely limit the chances of development greatly. Development cannot be ruled out, yet is VERY unlikely with our CAP. The most likely area for this minimal chance of development would be in SW and South Central Missouri though.
As we potentially have the quick development, and likely quick downfall of the potentially severe thunderstorms across the southern half of Missouri, we will also be in the eyes of a likely Mesoscale Convective System. This will be an interesting situation as it would form after massive storms come together in central Kansas.
As this storm heads for Eastern Kansas, and then Missouri, it will still encounter quite the right conditions for severe weather, which includes relatively warm temperatures, and dewpoints in which could be to about 75 degrees. These, and many more factors show a potential for a strong MCS with a bow echo.
With the MCS/derecho of mid-May still fresh on some minds, a though by many probably is, "Could tonight be like that night?"
The answer is, "Likely not. We could still have reports of 75+ mph winds if this materializes as expected, but the chances of it being like that are extremely low.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Rain and Storms Overnight, and Rain and Storms Tomorrow
Hello everybody; did you have a good weekend like I said? ;)Hope you did.
Looking into tonight, it looks like parts of Missouri could get wet...again!!! Over eastern Kansas and Eastern Nebraska, there are many complexes of rain and thunderstorms forming. These will eventually get pretty big and head over to the eastern Kansas and Missouri area, along with other storms that may form in Kansas.
When these complexes of storms move overhead, the severe threat is minimal; it's not really even worth mentioning. The SPC obviously over-did the severe weather estimates earlier with a 30% risk, when I could have really seen only a 5-15%. I put the slight risk in on my forecast for areas south of I70 yesterday, and I couldn't have emphasized more how slight it really was!
As we look towards tomorrow though, things are different looking at this moment. It looks like the warm front will drape itself somewhere across central Missouri, likely being south of Highway 50. This, along with another disturbance moving along the front will spell out a better chance of severe weather, yet will ail in comparison to the severity of the training rains some may experience some storm complexes. This map shows the highest, yet still not major supercell potential.
There is also a chance of severe weather for Tuesday, but right now I'll still keep that day as a slight risk. There is still more I need to look at as we head towards then, but it looks like a slightly stronger disturbance will be sent across that same front, but the front will likely be right at about I70 that day; a little farther to the north.
This is one of the situations where I must say that our risk is not very high at all. It is just a slight risk. In terms of the current SPC forecast, I think it does warrant a 30% risk, but once again, I think it should be placed farther south than the SPC says; place it with the edge on I70. And the hatched area isn't really necessary for most of Missouri.
Have a great night, and check in sometime tomorrow. I'll try to have a new post with updates.
Looking into tonight, it looks like parts of Missouri could get wet...again!!! Over eastern Kansas and Eastern Nebraska, there are many complexes of rain and thunderstorms forming. These will eventually get pretty big and head over to the eastern Kansas and Missouri area, along with other storms that may form in Kansas.
When these complexes of storms move overhead, the severe threat is minimal; it's not really even worth mentioning. The SPC obviously over-did the severe weather estimates earlier with a 30% risk, when I could have really seen only a 5-15%. I put the slight risk in on my forecast for areas south of I70 yesterday, and I couldn't have emphasized more how slight it really was!
As we look towards tomorrow though, things are different looking at this moment. It looks like the warm front will drape itself somewhere across central Missouri, likely being south of Highway 50. This, along with another disturbance moving along the front will spell out a better chance of severe weather, yet will ail in comparison to the severity of the training rains some may experience some storm complexes. This map shows the highest, yet still not major supercell potential.
There is also a chance of severe weather for Tuesday, but right now I'll still keep that day as a slight risk. There is still more I need to look at as we head towards then, but it looks like a slightly stronger disturbance will be sent across that same front, but the front will likely be right at about I70 that day; a little farther to the north.
This is one of the situations where I must say that our risk is not very high at all. It is just a slight risk. In terms of the current SPC forecast, I think it does warrant a 30% risk, but once again, I think it should be placed farther south than the SPC says; place it with the edge on I70. And the hatched area isn't really necessary for most of Missouri.
Have a great night, and check in sometime tomorrow. I'll try to have a new post with updates.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Heavy Rains and Monday Severe
A very complex weather situation is on our heels, with everything from heavy rain to storms to follow!
For your Sunday, we will have a warm front that will try to move up to the area, but will likely not get that close; it would be surprising if got much past the Kansas/ Oklahoma state line. That will bring a chance of severe weather somewhere in far southern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Other than the storms along the front, there will also certainly be a complex of thunderstorms that happens to form in eastern Kansas tomorrow, which would easily fly over this way. This complex does not look to be a severe one, just more of a wet one which will likely head very close to the Kansas City area.
As if receiving the rain from that complex is not enough, there will be MORE rain for your Monday, and that looks to be the primary day for severe weather across Missouri. The warm front will likely set itself up in southern Missouri.
When this front sets up in southern Missouri, there could possibly be another round of storms in which form in the morning. These morning storms could be slightly severe, but would ail in comparison to if the storms held off until the afternoon, and great convective heating took place in southern Missouri. Here is my current risk map:
This set up looks to have the greatest likelihood of severe weather south of I70, yet due to some uncertainty on EXACTLY where the front will set up, there is a slight risk anywhere south of Highway 36.
The models seem to want to have the heaviest rains just north of I70, but I believe that along with many setups this season, that the front will not go as far north as expected. That is why I am predicting the heaviest rain to most likely be in the Kansas City area.
Have a great rest of the weekend! =)
For your Sunday, we will have a warm front that will try to move up to the area, but will likely not get that close; it would be surprising if got much past the Kansas/ Oklahoma state line. That will bring a chance of severe weather somewhere in far southern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Other than the storms along the front, there will also certainly be a complex of thunderstorms that happens to form in eastern Kansas tomorrow, which would easily fly over this way. This complex does not look to be a severe one, just more of a wet one which will likely head very close to the Kansas City area.
As if receiving the rain from that complex is not enough, there will be MORE rain for your Monday, and that looks to be the primary day for severe weather across Missouri. The warm front will likely set itself up in southern Missouri.
When this front sets up in southern Missouri, there could possibly be another round of storms in which form in the morning. These morning storms could be slightly severe, but would ail in comparison to if the storms held off until the afternoon, and great convective heating took place in southern Missouri. Here is my current risk map:
This set up looks to have the greatest likelihood of severe weather south of I70, yet due to some uncertainty on EXACTLY where the front will set up, there is a slight risk anywhere south of Highway 36.
The models seem to want to have the heaviest rains just north of I70, but I believe that along with many setups this season, that the front will not go as far north as expected. That is why I am predicting the heaviest rain to most likely be in the Kansas City area.
Have a great rest of the weekend! =)
Monday, June 8, 2009
Tuesday's Potential Severe Weather
Just after a severe weather event this weekend with Vortex2 in our home state here in Missouri on Sunday, it seems we get to look forwards to one tomorrow… again!!!
You all know the front that cooled us down today right? Well, it’s coming back to the north, and will set up in the Missouri/Kansas area as a pesky stationary front. Where “exactly” this sets up is still a question though, so I will likely update the forecasts early in the morning, when I know exactly where it shall lay.
With the given information so far, it looks as if the greatest risk will lie in far eastern Kansas; the greatest profiles of instability and shear seem to be over there. Despite some disagreements in models still this afternoon, I would still bet on at least some supercells with large hail.
A lot of factors will lead to the strength of tomorrow’s storms, but if they do form, they could easily come to the Missouri side with some strong winds aloft. They would likely not be as strong here, but they could still produce hail, and if things set up right, maybe a bow echo.
The reason storms do not look to be as dangerous or likely here on the Missouri side is simply because of the lack of heat, moisture, and instability. If anywhere in Missouri was to have the worst weather, it would most likely be towards the Ozarks.
Pay attention to the latest updates, as things are LIKELY to change.
You all know the front that cooled us down today right? Well, it’s coming back to the north, and will set up in the Missouri/Kansas area as a pesky stationary front. Where “exactly” this sets up is still a question though, so I will likely update the forecasts early in the morning, when I know exactly where it shall lay.
With the given information so far, it looks as if the greatest risk will lie in far eastern Kansas; the greatest profiles of instability and shear seem to be over there. Despite some disagreements in models still this afternoon, I would still bet on at least some supercells with large hail.
A lot of factors will lead to the strength of tomorrow’s storms, but if they do form, they could easily come to the Missouri side with some strong winds aloft. They would likely not be as strong here, but they could still produce hail, and if things set up right, maybe a bow echo.
The reason storms do not look to be as dangerous or likely here on the Missouri side is simply because of the lack of heat, moisture, and instability. If anywhere in Missouri was to have the worst weather, it would most likely be towards the Ozarks.
Pay attention to the latest updates, as things are LIKELY to change.
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