Looking into tonight, it looks like parts of Missouri could get wet...again!!! Over eastern Kansas and Eastern Nebraska, there are many complexes of rain and thunderstorms forming. These will eventually get pretty big and head over to the eastern Kansas and Missouri area, along with other storms that may form in Kansas.
When these complexes of storms move overhead, the severe threat is minimal; it's not really even worth mentioning. The SPC obviously over-did the severe weather estimates earlier with a 30% risk, when I could have really seen only a 5-15%. I put the slight risk in on my forecast for areas south of I70 yesterday, and I couldn't have emphasized more how slight it really was!
As we look towards tomorrow though, things are different looking at this moment. It looks like the warm front will drape itself somewhere across central Missouri, likely being south of Highway 50. This, along with another disturbance moving along the front will spell out a better chance of severe weather, yet will ail in comparison to the severity of the training rains some may experience some storm complexes. This map shows the highest, yet still not major supercell potential.
There is also a chance of severe weather for Tuesday, but right now I'll still keep that day as a slight risk. There is still more I need to look at as we head towards then, but it looks like a slightly stronger disturbance will be sent across that same front, but the front will likely be right at about I70 that day; a little farther to the north.
This is one of the situations where I must say that our risk is not very high at all. It is just a slight risk. In terms of the current SPC forecast, I think it does warrant a 30% risk, but once again, I think it should be placed farther south than the SPC says; place it with the edge on I70. And the hatched area isn't really necessary for most of Missouri.
Have a great night, and check in sometime tomorrow. I'll try to have a new post with updates.
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