Thursday, May 28, 2009

UPDATE!!! "Some" Action After a Long Break.

Well, after breaking records for the longest May stretch without severe weather watches, we look to the future and see a "slightly" higher risk of severe weather.

We'll start off by looking at your Friday: We will likely warm up GREATLY across the state of Missouri and the surrounding areas. We will be most likely br in the 80s throughout the state. Humidity, which is an important ingredient for severe weather will "kind of" come up this way. The flow from the Gulf of Mexico is there... but yet not very much. It isn't anything you'd see for a good outbreak.

On Saturday, it appears there will be a trough somewhere to the northwest of Missouri, most likely in the Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota areas. This, along with some instability could lead to some storms popping up in Nebraska, and with the flow aloft from the northwest, these would likely come in to northern Missouri.

The only problem is, is that the flow of moisture from the Gulf will not be strong enough to create shear in the area. The heat and humidity will be there, but without shear, it will be hard for these storms to stay together. With that being said, there is a VERY SLIGHT risk of severe weather in Missouri, with the highest, yet very minimal chance being in Northern and Northeastern Missouri.

As we look after that, the trough seems like it will move east even more, and there will be a VERY SLIGHT risk of severe weather just to the northeast of Missouri, in Iowa and Illinois. It cannot be ruled out that one may come into the Kirksville area, but that risk is also very slight.

As we go into next week, another cyclone will come and eject itself out into Kansas, and a warm front will set itself up in the Missouri area, with storms along and north of this front. There could be some severe weather in far northern Missouri from this system, as it will have better air-dynamics, but it still isn't a great chance. Just stay tuned. Still a weak flow as depicted below.

I would not be worried about severe weather for the next several days WHAT-SO-EVER if you live south of U.S. 36 Highway in Missouri. Even if you do live north of that line, your chances are still VERY LOW! Just enjoy the upcoming warm, summer-like weather! =)

Has anybody heard of tropical depression 1 yet? It is just of the Cape of Massachusetts area, and as it goes to the Northeast, it may strengthen to a tropical storm status. Nobody is at risk by this storm though, as it will likely wash out within 4 or 5 days, and there are no land-masses in its path.

You can see the 40% risk of this depression becoming a tropical storm, in which appears to maybe be a little low due to the warm gulf stream. On this blog, I'd put it at about 60%. It will run into very minimal shear though, and tropical cyclones DO NOT like that.

Have a great weekend, as it shall be the last one of May, and it will be a good finale!

***Questions? Please ask!!! Comments are GREATLY appreciated too! Anyone can post on this blog!

5 comments:

  1. Thanks for the information. That storm looks in my opinion like it already is a tropical storm. I'd say very likely in terms of becoming a tropical storm.

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  2. MOSEVERE administration5/28/2009 04:12:00 PM

    That storm looks to be running into some shear, but VERY LITTLE. I will stand by my 60% chance for now, which is still higher than the forecast of the National Hurricane Center.

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  3. The SPC has "US", as in "WE" in the risk of severe weather for Saturday. What about that? I thought it was supposed to be up north!

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  4. I love you forecasts and analysis. It's easy to understand and really helpful!

    Donald

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  5. MOSEVERE administration5/28/2009 05:32:00 PM

    Molly-
    The best chance is up to the north according to my analysis. We are under a 5% risk for severe weather within 25 miles of your location for the northern part of Missouri. Even though the SPC does not say this, the best chance is still up in Iowa.

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