The culprit of this Slight Risk is a very weak wind-shift line, and let me emphasize "weak". With this boundary, there may be a small amount of lift, but as we all know, with temperatures in the 80s, it doesn't take much to get something started.
With convergence, there is nowhere to go but up. For example, when North Winds meet south winds, you may wonder where the air goes when they meet. It's simple. They can't go down, so they go up. You can see that in today's front.
Since the convergence is "weak", as noted by weak air speeds hitting each other, they will not be able to go up as fast as a strong convergence, which would send air upwards even faster.
If there are ANY risks with this set-up, it would be hail, and secondarily wind. The tornado risk is VERY small. These storms would be VERY isolated, if they even develop at all, so when looking at SPC outlooks for today, the word "slight" should be token to mind greatly.
As for if you should be worried, I would say you have nothing to worry about if you live south of U.S. Highway 36, you do not have to worry about severe weather, and if you live to the north, just be ready. Be sure to just enjoy your day, as the chance of getting rain at your house is still only about 30%. That is a 70% chance IT DOES NOT happen.
The main concern for today is lightning. If you hear thunder, go inside or get in a car. If you suspect a developing thunderstorm, get inside, as you could be near, or even struck by the first strike.
In terms of tropical depression 1, since it did not become a tropical storm overnight or this morning, the risk of becoming a tropical storm has went down more. It is still possible, but very unlikely. That map shows that fact with the VERY low chance of it becoming a tropical storm with greater than 39mph winds.
10PM Update: TD1 Has lost ALL tropical characteristics, thus, dropping the chance of becoming a tropical storm.
Enjoy a nice, summer-like day! Remember your lightning safety!
There were some storms form just to the north of St. Louis earlier. Anything serious?
ReplyDeleteThere was also a mesoscale discussion earlier far up towards northern Illionois and Indiana.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the greatest chances of severe weather are still located up to your north, as was that mesoscale discussion. In your area, the chance of seeing a storm is only 15-20%, so have no worries.
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye to the skies though!
I live up near St. Joe, and I was wondering about the risk of tornadoes, as I've always wanted to go storm chasing. What does this blog have to say?
ReplyDeleteMolly-
ReplyDeletechasing is a bad idea for those who are inexperienced. You should really know what you are doing first. Are you a trained spotter?
I know what I'm doing. I just haven't checked the forecast. I am a trained spotter.
ReplyDeleteThere is still a difference between spotting and chasing. If you do anything, stay at home and spot from your house. You don't want to get mixed in with the crazy people out chasing.
ReplyDeleteThe tornado risk is VERY LOW, and now, most likely non-existent, as nothing has fired yet.
Does the forecaster of these graphics also write the blog, and say "MOSEVERE administration?" Just wondering.
ReplyDeleteAlso, did you see the cluster of thunderstorms in Nebraska. Vortex 2 is up there. Will those storms come here?
yes. I am the forecaster.
ReplyDeleteThere is a small chance of the showers coming here. VERY slight though. =)